The Future? From the Back of the Bus?

It’s been a hectic few weeks; there seem to be events everywhere.

It really does feel like there is a ‘conference season’. As overwhelming as these can feel, by listening, closely, we can often use these to pick out many new ideas, so something to embrace… and for me it started last month.

Coffee, Cake, Repeat

To be honest, I am still feeling somewhat burnt. Generative AI, a topic, in reality, that had been around for a while, only seemed to get attention when ChatGPT burst onto the scene in 2020. Suddenly, because we could all see it, access it, and seemingly do fun stuff with it, did we all become excited.

Before this, it was academic, stuffy and more inaccessible… maybe something for the future, but still a long way off.

I wish we had been able to flag this better the first time around. With this in mind, I have vowed to make sure I double down and look even further ahead…

What are the latest ideas and academic discussions today that could result in the next wave of innovation tomorrow?

The ‘conference season’ is as good a place as any to start… So what is going to be the next big thing? Can we anticipate the future?

Quantum Technology: Exponential Potential?

First off on my slate of events, last week, Quantum Technology. Quantum is one of those ‘sexy’ sounding words that, like AI, is thrown around and added to sentences to make everything sound cutting edge.

Could this be the next ‘Cloud’, ‘Blockchain’, or indeed ‘AI’?

I went to the QuantumTech conference to get a better understanding and find out.

Quantum technology, in reality, is not just software; it is complex hardware, involving sophisticated mathematical algorithms to make it work. There was certainly lot of Big T tech going on, and much of this was hard, not easy – albeit with some hype around the edges… it has not reached the ChatGPT marketing moment yet for sure.

I walked away feeling very informed, and yet with the feeling that implementation for widespread use still appears to be several years away – likely five to ten years – particularly for areas like financial services.

Quantum technology is indeed promising but still relatively nascent, so was still in the watching brief category for me.

Behavioural Science: More Pervasive Than We Realise

The rest of the week involved discussions around behavioural science.

This is another field that has been around for some time, particularly in fast-moving consumer goods; however, in areas like debt collection, we are only just starting to realise the untapped potential by building systems to handle the data and manage the complexities of this in a complex customer journey.

… and, the session clearly got me thinking in new ways!

For example today I bought lunch and noticed I could either buy:

  • A ‘Grab Bag’ packet of crisps/chips – 45g for £1.10, or
  • A ‘£1.25’ packet of crisps/chips – 75g for £1.25

Same vendor, same shop.

Clearly, the second is more economical, but using my new ‘behavioural mindset’, I realised which one I bought really probably depended on my behavioural archetype. Ie am I in the:

  • ‘In a rush, at work, grabbing lunch’ mindset and go for the grab bag (and be less price-sensitive)? Or am I in the,
  • ‘Looking for value’ mindset, noticing the price and going for the latter?

Today, it turned out I was the latter, although I also found I am in the ‘finding it impossible to eat only half a bag’ category too – so maybe I need to rethink my choices next time !

All of this to say, behavioural science is not as uncommon as we may think. We see it every day already.

So can we use this to influence positive outcomes, such as guiding people towards better debt solutions in the collections space? It did feel like there is untapped near to medium-term potential here.

NPLs: Looking ahead

Lastly, this week, I have been at the Non-Performing Loans (NPL) Global Conference. NPLs are very much at the back end of the process of lending money. It is after all the process that takes place, when all else has failed, and lenders have largely given up and need to work out the loan.

Yet, despite being at the back of the process, this group also has a unique vantage point… one from which they are used to seeing everything in front of them, especially what is coming down the pipe. This includes a good view about the economy.

The picture painted unfortunately was not very rosy – a downturn in the US and Germany, likely impacting across Europe, increasing volumes and pressures on costs.

Technology and data however offered a bright spot. This is a potential solution and given the timelines something we still have the time to react and adjust for.

Rethinking Efficiency: Working Smarter, Not Harder

All of these discussions got me thinking about our workplace practices.

Can we use technology, data, and new ways of working, not just to be faster, but to also be smarter? Do we have a clear view of future tech?

When facing challenges, our instinct is often to ramp up activity – to push through more volume.

However, as the behavioural science discussion illustrated, we may be able to do things smarter. The quantum tech discussion showed there may also be new things around the corner that could change the game completely.

So as we potentially head into an economic downturn, my takeaway was that we may need to refocus, take a step back, explore new methods and new technology to enhance productivity and effectiveness… and all the while also keep our eyes firmly on the future horizon to anticipate what may arrive.

More ideas and events in November too… should be interesting.

Have a good weekend, everyone.

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Making a Pitch for Excellence

This week I was at the annual CSA conference, held this year at St George’s Park in Burton, Derbyshire.

An interesting agenda and discussion of course… albeit with a slightly disturbing update on the economic outlook for the UK. It sent me into a bit of a spin over dinner… for which I must apologise to my fellow dinner guests… I am sure it will be fine 🙂 … honestly. These things also come with a bit of political analysis and update too… often, and in contrast, strangely reassuring.

It is not to say you necessarily agree or disagree with any of the policies, however, to have the curtain lifted slightly and be given a sort of peak underneath to see the balancing act of political decision-making is always fascinating. Less ‘dark-arts’ and more ‘fact-based’ calculated decision-making than you would think… for me at least the hard-nosed rationality of it all really is quite comforting (esp in contrast to what is said by everyone else on social media).

[If you are interested in the report back from the conference – read about it here].

However, outside the conference itself… what also really struck me this year was the venue.


Unfamiliar to me prior to this visit, St George’s Park, is not just a conference centre but also a home to English football. Apparently having been built by the FA for $105m in 2012, it is a world-class training facility.

Now I am not particularly a fan of football, however, even I was excited… the whole facility was quite remarkable. Perfect pitches, manicured grounds, first-class facilities and a nice hotel, it really was a very impressive high-quality environment.

Admittedly I got lost trying to find a car park and then the entrance at night (getting my 10,000 steps in)… and even the staff car park (where I ended up) seemed nice too!

This great location for sport, got me thinking about the role of quality and competition in driving performance. Having such excellent facilities, training, teaching and performance data has undoubtedly allowed the teams to stay focused and strive for excellence.

It may not have happened immediately, but over time the culture grows and performance improves until eventually (and in some cases hopefully) they win tournaments.

Looking at all the facilities laid out and the investment made (and no doubt also at the local level), it really helped explain much of the team’s in England (improved) performance since the 2010s.

Clearly, it was not just luck, but also a good deal due to the investment, skill and focus that has been made to strive for excellence. The hard work pays off.


And, all of this is applicable in business too… an environment of excellence and indeed competition, makes a difference. Trade conferences and award evenings, just like this one, are a good example. These meetings are always an opportunity for people in the same industry to get together.

Just like the teams and players, they are also often competitors, looking to win, going after the same business and even making pitches to the same clients. On a day-to-day level this competition can be tough, with hard-fought wins or indeed hard-to-take losses.

Yet, like in football, this competition also drives the whole industry to higher standards, greater excellence in the delivery and design of products… and investment in excellence amplifies this further delivering even more gains over the longer term.


Looking around the world you see this effect elsewhere too… the development of Singapore or Dubai, the food culture in Italy or Japan, excellence in education/research in Oxford or Cambridge… it is about focus and investment, which then leads to a virtuous cycle… tending to even more excellence.

Yet, to take the warning from the economist, sadly the opposite is also true. A lack of investment or competition can lead to high prices or poorer service… look no further than my local bus service as an example, or even the rise in 1st class postage rates rising again this week. It is something to be careful of.


Yet rather than risk me getting sucked into another doom loop (again!), there was a lesson from this location.

Keeping our eyes on the prize and making sure we continue to invest in excellence is clearly critical and it demonstrably works.

We need to remember it is not only about just bettering ourselves but also creating an environment where we are all encouraged and strive to improve… to generate better outcomes. These conferences and locations are always refreshing and a great start…

We need to continue to create spaces and systems around us to inspire and perform at our best… something to remember no matter how tough the environment in the future gets.

Have a great weekend everyone.

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Less of a Blur – more surge pricing

Saturday was the release of Oasis tickets for general sale in the UK.

Now I would not say that I am an Oasis fan really, but having spent time in Manchester in the early 90s, it did evoke a certain nostalgia for my youth… I decided to join the queue.

I thought if I was lucky and the tickets were under £150, why not go along? It will be quite the spectacle. [In transparency, I felt the same about the Taylor Swift Eras tour… and despite some wild accusations from friends, I would not describe myself as a Swifty! Big bands and performers are just real pros and like them or not, worth going to see. It is always impressive to watch skilled artists at work].

So before 9 am, I got the largest cup of tea I could find and logged on. On my screen, a little bar appeared and I was in the queue.

4 hours later I was still in the queue, with the bar moving so slowly that I had been out to the shops, run some errands and even vacuumed the house (an upside?).

At 1:30 it was almost there, then poosh, I could log in and pick a date… Wednesday the 30th, London, mid-week hopefully not too busy I thought… click

… another queue, this time to pick a seat or ticket type and check out, this time helpfully giving the number of people ahead of me… only 425,000 people!

Now for those of you statistically minded.

  • Wembley Stadium Capacity (for concerts) – 90,000
  • The entire population of Bristol, UK (2023) – 423,000
  • Likelihood of my getting a ticket – 0%

I gave up, resigning myself to at least having been in the queue, having a story to tell and it did strike me that maybe I was a queue tourist… not sure if this was a thing, and good, or bad.

Looking on social media I was clearly not alone… and for those that didn’t give up, for latecomers like me, the scourge of surge pricing also kicked in.

It seems despite all the statements about how ticket touts should not resell tickets at inflated prices, the official vendors could inflate standing-only tickets from ~£150 to ~£350 to reflect demand on the day.

Admittedly, we don’t see the same level of outage for airline tickets normally, although the same thing happens… “to ensure seats are available for everyone to purchase”… we all feel it though, especially during the school holidays.

And this brings us to the topic of price increases… it does seem like this is a running theme again. Some stats again for this year.

  • Mobile phone tariff, up by nearly 8%
  • Energy costs, up by 10%
  • Adobe Creative Cloud, up by 10%
  • Linkedin Subscription, up by 20%
  • Car Insurance, up by over 40%
  • Rate of Inflation: ~3%
  • Likelihood of 20% salary increase: 0%

Outside of any arguments about the inflation rate is calculated, and ‘tweaked’… it does seem like there is a discrepancy between the headline inflation rate and actual price increases.

It is starting to feel like many companies have thrown in the towel on managing costs, and simply increased prices to increase margin. If after all that is what the market will bear and everyone else is doing it why not…?

At this point let’s also remember all of this is against some massive opportunities for productivity increases from digitalisation or processes. There are new automation opportunities being opened up by AI…

Sadly looking at my emails, despite the promise of AI, to date it is being cited more as an added feature, marketing to me the justification for the massive price increase. In consumer’s minds they are kind of expecting, a smoother service for the same (and certainly no higher than a inflation rate increase in) price.

And, the bigger danger with all this short-term margin maximisation, it simply drives more inflation. It makes me worry that we need to get ready for much higher inflation rates in the future, as this works through the system too. [think up to 20%]

…however, on the positive, this is also a massive opportunity for those who do not follow suit.

Consumers and businesses, in such an environment, will be looking for value, the same products for a better deal.

Think about ‘over the top’ media such as Netflix and streaming has challenged high prices at cinemas, WhatsApp international calls vs the traditional telephone calls and the whole FinTech financial services space. Changes are already afoot.

This even applies to smaller, local, producers of household goods. After all why pay high prices for a mass-market product, when I can get a higher-quality local product for the same price?

So there is some reason for optimism.. new, smaller or local providers, with greater efficiency, can go after increasing volume, rather than just increasing rate (price).

I am not exactly sure this approach is going to help with my Oasis tickets… although there is a local band night on Tuesdays, which is fun (and free).

Have a good week, everyone!

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